These forecasts are for the Pocono Mountains region, focused on Mount Pocono, my city of residence. Thus they are most applicable for north-central Monroe Co. and nearby locations. My weather information consists of 4 sections :

• Discussion
• Forecast
• Min/max temperatures (°F) & precipitation & snow accumulation (inches)
• Precipitation probability (%), 00-12 Z, 12-00 Z

The primary purpose of my discussion is describing the basic progression of weather events for the forecast period and weather features involved. Though often general, sometimes specific information is mentioned here, such as timing and amounts of precipitation, and variations among locations. Here possibilities and uncertainties are expressed, to inform the user how likely I feel specific occurrences are. This differs from the forecast section (see below). I occasionally mention things which may help a user better understand the processes causing our weather.

The forecast is the 1 thing I expect - right or wrong. Thus I neither discuss uncertainties here nor mention likelihoods or probabilities. Some forecasts mention chance of this or chance of that - the only thing there isn't a chance of is the forecast being right This forecast is usually valid for the area extending from the broad Pocono plateau primarily over NW Monroe Co. to near the bottom of its slopes to the SE and specifically intended for average elevated locations of the Poconos. Because much of this area is forested, temperatures in open areas (such as an airport ) might be significantly lower during nights - especially if calm and clear, and slightly higher during sunny days - perhaps much higher at locations with plenty of buildings, asphalt, & concrete. If a freezing rain event, fog, or any other localized effect occurs, I may mention specific locations.

The purpose of the daily (min/max & precipitation) forecasts is providing numbers for verification. These tend to differ slightly from numbers mentioned in the forecast section because of a peculiar microclimate, but only doing this can I know how accurate I am. Some microclimate effects are: warm nights - especially during summer, temperatures at or near minimum before or not long after midnight - sometimes even if clear & rather calm, warm sunny mornings and few daily maxima mid-late afternoon (because of the steep forested slope to the WNW), effective snow melt during a sunny winter day, warm spring and fall days before/after leaves are primarily off the trees and cool summer sunny days when the vegetation is abundant. "Warm" & "cool" here is relative.

I include a section with probabilities of measurable precipitation. These are my estimated likelihoods an amount rounded to .01 inches or more occurs during the 00-12 Z & 12-00 Z periods. 00 Z is 7 PM EST and 12 Z is 7 AM EST, so the periods approximately correspond to the nighttime and subsequent daytime period ending that day. For example: if the probabilities are 5 & 73 for the WED forecast, I estimate a 5% chance from 7 PM TUE to 7 AM WED and a 73% chance from 7 AM to 7 PM WED (EST). I use the ones digit (e.g., 73 rather than 70) not so much because I can discern that little bit of a difference for those, but because I can between say a 2% & 7% chance (1 in 50 as oppposed to about 1 in 14) - so may as well use it for all of them. Same thing for the last digits in precipitation & snow amounts.

Be aware that fine-tuning these forecasts requires a great deal of monitoring, and I average updating them only a little more than once a day. So though they are my best estimates at the time shown, I could probably improve them at any given time - especially for the first 3 periods.

Though I don't think my discussions & forecasts are confusing, below I mention some conventions I use lest they are. I am considering omitting the forecast section and posting only the numbers and a brief discussion.

The forecast period is usually the next 6 days, though I try not to make the last day in the middle of an expected storm or abrupt weather change.

The min/max temperatures and precipitation amounts are for midnight to midnight mean solar time for my location - except for the current day, for which they are for the remainder of the day. Though be aware that "day" in the text of the forecast refers to the daytime period. E.g., "sunny the remainder of day, then becoming cloudy early night".

Elevation - The "average" location mentioned above is similar with mine - at about 1300-1900 feet elevation. The term elevated locations refers to these and high locations, which refer to the broad summit of around 1900 feet to hills around 2200 feet. This includes Pocono Lake, Tobyhanna, Coolbaugh, Gouldsboro, and Moscow. The term low locations refers to those around 900-1300 feet - basically most places SE of Buck Hill Falls and Tannersville. Examples of locations which are neither are Crescent Lake, Pocono Manor, Cresco, Cresco Heights, and much of Mount Pocono (excluding its NW end on the summit).

Cloudiness - I often use the terms clear, scattered, broken, and overcast as defined here. Mainly clear implies skies clear or nearly so most of the time. Cloudy implies overcast or near overcast skies. I often use the term cumuliform or cirriform cloudiness as described here (and the 2-letter abbreviations for cloud types). I do this because quite often several types of those forms occur - not only cumulus or cirrus, for example. Increasing and decreasing cloudiness means skies becoming cloudier &/or darker or clearer &/or brighter, respectively. Note that skies may occasionally remain overcast & cloudiness increase (or decrease). For example, a progression from cirrostratus to altostratus to nimbus as the predominate type in overcast skies.

I often like beginning a discussion with "I expect...". This means I am generally confident of what I am saying, as I am if do not some way express uncertainty. Among the ways I do, I sometimes use the term likely. This corresponds with a probability of about 60-90% - unlikely thus being the opposite. May, as in "rain may occur" generally means somewhere in the 30-70% range.

Character of precipitation - (Thunder)showers means that thunder & lightning may occur along with showers. I.e., quite possible, but I am far from certain. Or it may mean that much fewer thundershowers are expected among larger areas or bands of precipitation. If I think they are likely, I don't use the parenthesis. Areas of showers, rain, light snow, etc. means that they'll tend to be in groups - often covering much of the region, though perhaps as little as 20% of it. This differs from scattered showers, which tend to be individual cells rather than groups of them. "Areas" can thus be quite large - perhaps even the size of New Jersey, but "scattered" showers are never much more than 20 miles across - often less than 10. Just as for the NWS forecasts, isolated refers to about 10-25% area coverage and scattered about 25-50%. "Areas" tend to cover more than that - often like the "numerous" the NWS uses - though the term seems rather senseless to me because any amount of showers (even isolated) can be numbered or counted. Diurnal showers refer to those from daytime heating - most times afternoon to early night, though can develop as early as mid morning and persist to around midnight.

Please don't become too picky about specific numbers - this is not that exact - temperatures often vary 1-3 °F in an acre with variable terrain & vegetation. If I use the term low-mid or mid-high, it is not so much that I want to increase the range, but that the expected temperature is right around where those scales meet. I considered using one number instead of such a range for maximum & minimum temperatures; but even if so, many situations occur when the temperature remains in a range for an extended period. E.g., "foggy much of today with temps of higher 40's".

though I reserve the term brisk for cold winds. Thus I'll tend to use none of the descriptors for a 22 knot south wind or even north wind during summer. Note that 1 knot = 1.151 miles per hour, and that breezes and winds overlap. Breezes can be quite gusty, but characteristically with weaker lulls. Winds are more consistent. For example, a day with mild breezes from the S may be around 7 knots much of the time with some gusts greater than 10, though also with lulls of near calm wind. A 7 knot wind would be steadier. Others may also overlap a bit - these are not strict boundaries, but only provided to give the user an idea of what the descriptions generally represent.

I often use the terms veering and backing. Veering means winds are turning clockwise and backing counterclockwise. I.e., consider an arrow pointing the direction the wind is blowing, such that it points from S to N for a S wind. If this wind turned rather steadily to a W wind, it "veered from S to W" (that may seem a bit confusing because neither of the winds blow to S or W - they blow to the opposite directions - but it is a concise description so long as you know what is meant). An abrupt change of direction is considered a wind shift.